January 7, 2008

New CNN Poll: Paul at 10% in New Hampshire

The new CNN/WMUR poll has Paul at 10%:

McCain 32%
Romney 26%
Huckabee 14%
Giuliani 11%
Paul 10%
Hunter 1%
Thompson 1%
Someone else 2%
No opinion 5%

More interesting, however, is the radical shift in the independent vote. 49% of independents plan on voting in the GOP primary (on 5 – 6 Jan), up from 44% on 4 – 5 Jan and 37% on 27 – 30 Dec. This is the exact opposite of what the pundits predicted would happen if Obama won Iowa: the conventional wisdom was that if Obama won Iowa to make New Hampshire competetive, independents would flock to the democratic primary to support Obama. And with independents in New Hampshire strongly opposed to the War in Iraq, I don’t think they’re flocking to John “100-years in Iraq” McCain.