In the latest SurveyUSA Poll (Paul's name was again not mentioned) in California, Giuliani's support has been cut by almost a third, from 39% to 28% (only 8 ahead of Huckabee) -- further evidence that his "national strategy" to win California, Florida, New York, Michigan, and other big states, is failing.
In California, the Giuliani campaign is apparently unaware that there will be 53 separate primaries in California, with each Congressional District awarding 3 delegates. In such a set up, winning by a landslide in Orange County won't stop Ron Paul from picking off a dozen Bay Area congressional districts in a guerilla campaign (the size of Iowa).
In Florida, Giuliani's 20-pt lead has been erased, while his 30-pt lead in Pennsylvania has been cut in half. He's tied in Michigan and winning in Ohio, but his massive leads in his own backyard (New York and New Jersey) have been cut from 40 pts to 20 pts. In Texas, the race is wide open.
What does all this mean? For one, I cannot see any foreseeable way that Giuliani, the anti-Paul, can secure the nomination. However, it does look like he'll carve out a good chunk of the East and parts of California, perhaps taking NY, NJ, PA, OH, VA, MD, DE, and part of CA. That would give him 20% of the delegates with limited ability to move beyond that, with victories in TX, FL, and MI putting him near 30%.
Giuliani getting 1/5th to 1/3rd of the vote, at most, virtually assures that no candidate will get the 50% needed to avoid a brokered convention; Huckabee is locked out of New England, and Romney the South. As a result, Paul only needs a quarter or so of the delegates to have a good chance at winning a brokered convention. If Paul can win the 16 states that hold caucuses, he will win 20% of the vote, perhaps enough to win a brokered convention.
Update: Thanks to Michael and Brian for notifying me that both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin also allocate delegates by Congressional district. In addition, about 3/5ths of Ohio's delegates are determined by congressional district and 2/3rds of Texas' are, along with some other states (see the Green Papers for details on every state). These states provide additonal areas for the Paul campaign to pick off delegates needed for the brokered convention.
