If you adjust the poll to only include those who are 'certain to support' their candidate, Romney is winning in his own backyard and there's a 4-way tie for third. If Paul finishes 3rd or better in Iowa and proves that he's electable in New Hampshire, he'll peel off a lot of support from the other four, all of whom have very soft support. If Romney ends up losing Iowa, especially if its by a substantial margin, I think that a lot of his soft support will abandon him.
Romney - 33% x 60% = 19.8% (1st)
McCain - 20% x 54% = 10.8% (2nd)
Giuliani - 16% x 55% = 08.8% (3rd)
Paul - 08% x 88% = 7.0% (4th)
Huckabee - 11% x 47% = 5.2% (5th)
It is also interesting to note that those polled see Paul as the 2nd-most conservative candidate (Huckabee 25%, Paul 17%) -- good to see the media paradigm that "liberals are anti-war" and "conservatives are pro-war" is transparent to voters in the Granite State. The only negative (for Paul) statistic in the poll is that 23% of Paul supporters believe he cannot beat a Democrat in the general election, far more than any other republican. But just the opposite is true: Paul would steal a good chunk of the anti-war Left's vote and most of the independents, although Obama has strong appeal among independents as well.
