We all know that Ron Paul’s on-the-ground support is much larger than his status in the polls – but such discrepancies are not limited to the GOP race. Yesterday, 7th-place Democratic Presidential Candidate Chris Dodd received a major endorsement from the International Association of Firefighters (IAFF), much to the surprise of the media establishment – and Hillary Clinton. Recently, Rolling Stone detailed the gap between John Edwards’ large crowds and his third-place polling position – and the adoration for him amongst the Hard Left:
While Clinton and Obama are running media-age campaigns that focus on big ad buys in delegate-rich states, Edwards is taking a decidedly old-school approach. In a strategy reminiscent of the way Jimmy Carter captured New Hampshire in 1976, Edwards has focused on building grass-roots support in Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina -- the first four Democratic contests, all of which will be held in January. Working out of the national spotlight, he has established a sizable lead in the state where a victory in 2004 effectively clinched John Kerry's nomination. "Edwards could well win Iowa," says James Carville, the former adviser to Bill Clinton. Thanks to his Southern roots and a deep relationship with organized labor, Edwards would then become the candidate to beat in both South Carolina and Nevada -- victories that would establish him as the front-runner a week before the huge "national primary" scheduled for twenty states on February 5th. "If he wins Iowa and New Hampshire," says Chris Lehane, a top strategist for both Kerry and Al Gore, "He'll have such a head of steam he'll be unstoppable."…Such unabashed progressive stances have made Edwards a hit among the party's Netroots activists. His climate-change plan was the runaway favorite in a MoveOn.org straw poll that followed the Live Earth concerts. And in a recent survey of more than 16,000 Democrats on Daily Kos, Edwards emerged as the top choice, registering forty percent support to Obama's twenty-two percent. "Edwards' proposals go the furthest -- they're like the ideal," says Moulitsas of Daily Kos. "Everybody else is playing it so safe it's dreadful."
I still maintain my view that nothing really matters at this point. History has shown that candidates do not break out until about a month before the first primary, when people actually start paying attention to the candidates – right now, the big media outlets are just filling airtime.
Ron Paul knows history, and is gearing his insurgency campaign to take advantage of it – saving his money for a political Tet Offensive in December (an all-out media assault that makes him appear more formiddable than he actually is, etc.) that will catapult him to the top in Iowa and New Hampshire.
