About three weeks ago Russian America TV news had a video report from one of the major cities of about a million people in New Russia [formerly eastern Ukraine]. Part of the video was a good talk with the newly appointed mayor. He said they have plenty of weapons for the coming guerrilla war from older weapons to new weapons they were buying. He said they even had shoulder fired anti-aircraft missiles and pointed to two long weapons leaning against the wall that were in their heavy cloth cases.
Since I could not even see their details and knew well he might be lying in the typical way of warriors to scare the enemy and inspire friends to help, I thought it could certainly be true because there are so many of those weapons in the world, the global Black Market arms markets are huge like most black markets in goods in high demand [and the father of a close friend made a fortune in that global market], New Russia has a huge and open border with Russia where they could have been bought or been given to them, I had no good evidence of the use of such a deadly weapon against the vast U.S.-Kiev Army, National Guard, and Black Ops forces trying to starve these New Russians into submission or death, as the Nazi armies did to their grand parent in Russia, I suspended judgment and started watching for good clues.
In recent weeks the media trying to report the truth about what is happening there, rather than Black Outs and agitprop lies we see routinely in the Big U.S. Media, there have been video news reports of four Ukrainian helicopters that went down. Two of these were reported as crashes, two as having been shot down by the New Russian forces. [Obviously, I may have missed some video reports, since I don't sit around doing nothing else all day!]
One was said by the New Russia sources to have been hit with small arms. The latest they report is shot down with a “mobile” anti-aircraft weapon. That could be an old anti-aircraft artillery barrage on wheels. It could be a shoulder-fired weapon such as the Stingers that took a great toll in Afghanistan and demoralized the Red Army. [I was one of the authors of a book on DEFENDING A FREE SOCIETY during that war in which we concluded such methods could defeat the Soviets. They did.]
My guess now is that the New Russia forces are beginning to use more effective weapons and far more organized forces which move quickly around the inside perimeters [interior lines] of their besieged cities to attack the U.S.-Ukraine forces. Just this morning reports indicate that about 500 New Russia organized forces in uniforms attacked a vital Ukrainian border guard position near Russia. More forces are rushing in from all sides.
I think the New Russia forces are not anxious to let the world know they have such weapons, expert training and veteran officer leadership because the U.S. global agitprop Media armies will attack Russia as the source, especially now that videos of very tough Chechen and other Russian vet forces crossing the border to join New Russian forces have been shown.
The Ukraine forces do not want the people of the Ukraine to know how badly their war against New Russia is going, so they are not anxious to report such scary losses.
There have been some very good video news reports from the front showing devastating guerrilla attacks on the ground by the New Russians against the U.S.-Ukraine forces.
The U.S.-Ukraine forces have the advantage of fire power from armor and artillery to kill civilians and massed forces of guerrillas, but the guerrillas have the greater advantages of rapid movement from the inside perimeters, knowledge of the terrain, esprit de corps, defending their families and homeland, surprise, forests to cover their movements [which the Afghan guerrillas did not have against the Red Army but sent them fleeing defeat anyhow].
If the Russians provide food and medicine humanitarian help, the guerrillas can buy weapons on the world market or from former Russian forces or black markets, and Russian and other vets pour in to help, they can win.
These New Russians are being reborn as defenders of Mother New Russia as the Russian people, including the Ukrainian Russians, were suddenly reborn as defenders of Mother Russia against the Nazis in spite of their often violent hatred of Stalin.
They have been living the easy life, as Russians have been living on the Oil Welfare State dole, but now they are suddenly mortally threatened by the Evil Empire of the atheistic U.S. and Ukrainian terrorists.
They are mad as hell, arming, training, fighting fiercely and defeating what they seem to see as the New Nazi forces invading their mother land.
The Russians are responding in the same way to the U.S. launching of WWIV against them for helping their brother and sister Russians the U.S. and Ukraine are trying to starve to death as Nazis did to Russia’s great cities.
This U.S. War Against The World is a tremendous help to Putin and his supporters trying to wake Russians up and get them going with fierce determination.
I think there will be an agreement in the short and medium term among the EU led by Germany, Russia, and the new Ukrainian government to end the fighting in the East, decentralize power from Kiev and allow wide autonomy for the local regions. The fierce fighting erupting recently makes this look like the opposite of the truth, but I think this is merely the usual fighting for bargaining chips and positions before the serious peace talks reach a conclusion. Each side is trying to look as tough an victorious as possible to get a better deal in the agreement. New Russians with Russian help are trying to get the most autonomy possible. Kiev is trying to give up the least power possible. They will compromise because Russia and Germany and most of the E.U. will insist. The U.S. still wants war to isolate and weaen Russia, but the Russians and New Russians can, if pushed to it, show the U.S. and Kiev that they could lose all of the S. E. Ukraine up to and including the Russian major Russian speaking Odessa, a vital part of the Russian Black Sea power base for a few centuries.
The Russians could easily use indirect force by building the New Russian forces with civilian volunteers [vets] and modern weapons and take over that whole Black Sea area of the Ukraine. That would increase E.U. fear and isolation of Russia, hurt the Russian economy more with financial punishments by the U.S., and possibly entangle New Russia and even Russia in a destructive guerrilla war. Russia and New Russia will prefer an agreement for now.
Wide autonomy for the New Russian provinces of a weak, terribly indebted and failing Kiev government will allow them to become quietly more and more integrated with Russia and eventually probably go home to Mother Russia–or just join a close Alliance with Russia as Kazakhstan [with about one third of its citizens Russians] and Belarus [which is quite Russian in fact] have just done.
It is always possible the Chocolate Oligarch who has just become the new head of the Kiev government will be seduced or pressured by the U.S. into carrying on the war against the ethnic Russians of the East and South. He could easily make this terrible Ukraine Crisis a Ukraine Catastrophe that would inflict serious pain on Russia in the short run and maybe cut the gas to the E.U. and produce a Financial Implosion in the rapidly sinking E.U. and U.S. Global Empire. I think he will be more realistic as he talks more with the Germans and the Russians.
Overall, I think the Russians need a new threat like this from the West to shock them awake and lead to fierce development of Russia and its excellent arms industries of all kinds.
The U.S. has shocked a Great Russian Bear into fierce preparations for World War IV.
Like many dying empires in their final days, the U.S. is paranoid, terrified by its own images of terrorists everywhere, is striking out in blind desperation to save itself from its own paranoid fears and is in fact destroying its foundations.