The old adage “history repeats itself” has been applied to all facets of the investing world, but it’s especially apparent in the commodity world. With most assets displaying cyclical returns and seasonality, the history of many commodities is bound to repeat itself the following year. When it comes to gold, Peter Schiff believes that the phrase points the path to a major run up in gold that few investors will be counting on.
Gold Drawing Historical Parallels
In 1976, gold had just finished bottoming out as a correction put an end to a multi-year bull run. Schiff notes that at this point in time, the American economy was at a point where confidence was returning and investors where beginning to increase their risk appetite. Schiff then pulls segments of an article written in 1976 that continues to describe an economy eerily similar to that of today’s. The rest, is history, as gold would embark on a bull run that saw its price jump by more than 700% in just a few years.
Schiff goes on to point out that the sentiment for gold today is nearly identical to what it had been in the mid-’70s, as investors lost their love for the precious metal. With improving economies and consumer confidence on the rise, gold was seen as less of a safe haven in both time periods; with no yield and a plummeting price, investors quickly exited their precious metal positions. But, of course, those who exited in the mid-’70s unfortunately missed out on a massive rally the following years, a rally that Schiff argues can easily happen again.