I wrote briefly about the growing wars in Syria many months ago before the U.S., U.K., France, Russia, Iraq, et al., got so involved. I thought the Assad regime could probably defeat Sunni guerrillas from inside Syria because the regime has very strong support from Shia, some Sunni groups, Christians, business people, probably most Kurds [but not strong], etc. I did not at the time think the U.S., U.K., Israel would be irrational enough to get involved and set the vast region on fire even more than it is from Iraq, Afghanistan, etc.
I have not written since because the situation in the Syrian Wars has become so secret, so hidden from independent, honest, outside observers, so complex, so rapidly changing, and so explosive for the whole region and beyond because of the outside arming and training and probably leading of Sunnis that I cannot understand what is happening now, nevertheless what will happen in the distant future of a month or so. After all, just a week ago it was not clear that Hizbollah, the most effective guerrilla force in the world [which has defeated and driven the Israelis from Lebanon twice], was going to intervene in force on the side of Assad’s forces. Now they have, though we don’t yet know if they are going to be full-force allies. This could drastically change the vastly fluid situation and bring in more outside forces–Israel, the U.S., Russia, Turkey, Iraq, Iran…. There are all kinds of wild cards being readied for action in Syria and the region.
Syria is a vastly complex conglomerate of nations within what was one totalitarian empire-state for decades. Iraq is like that, with three major nations within one empire-state largely imposed the U.K. and then the U.S. But Syria is far more divided among the Sunni. It is not as divided as Lebanon in religions and ethnicities, but now there are so many outside supporters of different Sunni groups vying for power that it is close to being a war-of-many nations and armies against each other like the Lebanese Civil War was that led in time to the emergence of the Shia Hizbollah as the dominant power.
The Assad government was actually becoming a less totalitarian, more pluralistic government, trying to maintain some balance among the many powerful groups, while retaining the supreme power for the minority Shia. Syria was open to the world, secularizing, building business and education. As far as I can tell, and the recent Wall St. Journal reporting agrees on this, Assad is still supported by the major business groups who fear Sunni Islamists will come to power if Assad falls. The Christians and other, smaller religious groups quietly support Assad for the same reasons. They have thrived under the regime recently.
But Assad was playing a dangerous game of working with the U.S. and Israel [quietly] to maintain the general status quo, while working with the soaring Shia Powers Iran-Iraq-Hizbollah and, thence, the Sunni Islamist groups like Hamas fighting Israel and moving closer to the new Islamist Egypt, which frightens the U.S. and Israel and Saudi Arabia and the other U.S. totalitarian puppets working with the Saudis.
I think the U.S. and Israel became more and more frightened by the rise of the Shia Power Block and the move of the Sunni Islamist regimes, especially Egypt, to work with them quietly, step by step. Israel feels mortally threatened by the vast forces tightening their grip on all sides of them, even in Jordan [especially now with Syrians pouring in]. They want the U.S. to attack and cripple Iran. The U.S. wants to cripple Iran, but not take the risks of direct attack, which are vast on all sides, including next-door neighbors Afghanistan and Pakistan. The Russians and Chinese are quiet allies of Iran and Syria and thence the Shia Power Block. Turkey is more and more Islamist and anti-U.S. quietly and Israel more openly, trying to work with Iraq while trying to build a Kurd nation controlling the oil in the North of Iraq working with Turkey, not supporting Kurd revel lions in Turkey.
I think the U.S., U.K., et al, and Israel thought the Sunni insurgents emerging inside Syria might provide an easy victory over the Shia government of Assad and the Shia Power Block, so they strongly supported it secretly and then openly.
I think, but obviously do not yet have any grounds to do so confidently, that was a fatal error for the U.S. and its puppets. The whole region is being pulled in and getting more and more explosive. Russia is being pulled in. Hizbollah is in. Even if the U.S. or its puppets kill Assad and overthrow the regime, it looks likely that the holy-warrior Sunni Islamists will come to power in most of the Sunni areas of Syria, the Shia will form their own nation next to Lebanon and be strongly allied with Hizbollah and the Shia Power Block, and Islamists forces wiil be stronger everywhere and more anti-U.S. and Israel.
The U.S. might go-for-broke by attacking Iran massively and that will probably lead to massive attacks against the Saudis and other U.S. puppets in the Persian Gulf and thence to….
You can try to fill in the wide-open possibilities.
I think this is another U.S. Catastrophe that is getting worse and worse, all the way from Gaza and Egypt and Lebanon and Syria and Iraq to Afghanistan and Pakistan and Central Asia and….
The U.S. needs desperately to cut its immense financial and military and political and diplomatic losses in this whole vast region. But it seems caught in the vast, boiling vortex of complex forces it has unleashed.