Recently by Richard Russell: Can Gold Save a Choking Planet?
"At a certain age, it’s better to look up than look down." ~ Penny Marshall
Well, we got through the first week of October all right. And I’m still waiting to see if the Dow can close at a new unconfirmed high, which would be just above 13,596.93. Does the Dow have a mysterious brain, and does the Dow, with its extraordinary way of thinking, not want to record an unconfirmed new high? It almost seems so. Ah, it’s just one of the fantastic mysteries of the market. Day after day the Dow flirts with a potential new high – then it thinks better about it, and sells off, which is what it did yesterday. The Transports closed up 43 yesterday, but at a close of 5012.71 they are still far from confirming (a confirmation would require the Transports to close above 5285.97). Frankly, I can’t remember dealing with a weird situation like this before. Strange, we’re waiting for new highs in the Averages, and at the same time we’re waiting for gold to break upside into the 1800s.
Let’s be honest. What would we do with our gold if it rallied to 1800 – and then above 2,000? Actually, I wouldn’t do anything with my physical gold, any more than I’d do something with my house if the real estate market got hot and my house was suddenly worth more.
What would I sell my gold for? Sell it for dollars, for euros, or for renminbi? Or trade it for a Ferrari? No thanks, if you have physical gold, don’t touch it, sit on it, and save it for a rainy day. When the economy starts raining, and the dollar collapses, you’ll be glad you have something of value. "Patience, patience" is the right stance.
Gold – walkin’ up the blue trendline. The moving averages show a "golden cross." Sure, gold is overbought, but let’s see if it can stay on the ascending trendline. Look at the expanding volume on yesterday’s rise to a new high. I’m still waiting patiently for 1800.
Facts – Suppose we decided to stabilize our growing debts through spending cuts alone? We’d have to cut all government spending by 31%.
But suppose we decided to stabilize our growing debts through taxes alone. We’d have to raise taxes by an impossible 46%.
Both of these "solutions" would wreck the nation. Therefore, neither one will be on the table. But a combination of both will probably be tried.
But wait – suppose there is no political or reasonable answer to our growing and compounding deficits and debts – none? Then what? Wait, there is one answer, and it’s the answer that our government will surely try. That answer is to try to print our way out of the debt problem. The government will surely attempt to print our way out of our growing troubles.
The biggest debt problem is connected with our government health program. By the year 2050, health programs will chew up about 14% of the US’s entire gross national product. Cutting back substantially on Medicare is politically impossible.