Divergence between paper gold and physical gold price is happening, the process begun. Actual physical shortages have kept the price up. The naked shorting of futures has kept the paper price down. The fraud cases and lawsuits, with no hint of prosecution, provide the levered force to create much wider divergence, as traders and entire firms depart the tainted crime scene that is the COMEX. Trust has vanished along with private accounts. At the center of the backdrop for the divergence, apart from the criminal events, is the economic deterioration and asset market downdraft. It leads to margin calls, loan payment obligations, fading investor confidence, negative sentiment, and a desire to avoid loss. Hence the huge liquidity concerns, selling of good assets that command a strong price, and central bank encouragement of gold sales even with lease. These forces conspire to push down the gold futures price from the discovery process, called the paper gold price. These forces, although real, are exaggerated by the Syndicate to explain all. On the other side is the desperation among central bankers to cover debt securities up for sale or rollover funding. They resort to utter hyper inflation by monetizing the many types of government bonds. They are obligated to aid their banker cohorts, and thus purchase truckloads of badly impaired sovereign bonds and other collateralized bonds. Over time these sovereign bonds have proved toxic. The compelling need to stimulate economies, to redeem toxic bonds, and to recapitalize and nationalize the big banks adds to the monetary inflation outcome. Therefore, two sides are in opposition in a battle to the death of one or the other. No middle ground can be achieved, not any longer. It is the quintessential battle between monetary hyper inflation and restoring bank system integrity to avert collapse. The insolvency has recently met illiquidity. The battle features strong forces on each side. The divergence between physical and paper gold price is widening.
The incurable speculator junkies committed to the addictive leveraged game rigged by the Forces of Evil seem stuck at the casino tables, where fingers are lost, finally entire hands and arms. If their practice was to purchase physical, they could benefit from the paper price swoon, and join the Forces of Good team, rather than fighting the evil side on their dominated turf. To be sure, many aware analysts in the news maintain a small gold position in COMEX that is rolled over constantly. Many have physical positions but keep with the paper trades as a hobby, better described as an addition to the juice. Leverage cuts both ways. Their continued activity has left them exposed to theft, while knowing the criminality was widespread within the arena. So many players and firms are departing the arena altogether like Ann Barnhardt of BCM Capital. The divergence between physical and paper gold price is widening.
The desperation of the bad team is growing. The gold cartel has benefited significantly from the fresh Libyan gold supply (144 metric tons) and Greek gold supply (111 metric tons), not to mention the ample Dollar Swap Facility. It is the bankers New Gold, as reported by intrepid Jeff Neilson. In a fresh sign of bankster desperation, the lease rates for gold have been pushed down to net negative levels. The fresh supply from the two broken nations has greatly aided the COMEX, providing new cannon fodder. Perhaps more wars to liberate the oppressed can be conjured up, to release more tyrant wealth. It is not a coincidence that negative gold lease rates came when Libyan gold was made available (heisted) and when Italian sovereign bonds went into critical DEFCON mode. The gold supply helped to aid the lack of bond demand. The gold lease story is analyzed more fully in the December Hat Trick Letter.
INELASTICITY BLEMISH
A preface is warranted. The paper Gold market is very different in its internal dynamics from the physical. The paper Gold market shows signs of inelasticity that borders on comical. Witness the low demand in 2001 and 2002 when Gold had a paper price tag at $300 or less per ounce. Witness nowadays the amplified selling when the paper price declines. The leverage from the corrupted paper mechanisms forces margin pressures and sales. The leveraged game goes opposite to the real world of price mechanisms. On the upside, global demand rises with a rising physical price, called the gold fever. The inelasticity on the supply side is prevalent in the paper market, while the inelasticity on the demand side is prevalent on the physical market. To confuse the mix, mining firms realize some inelasticity as price falls, they are stuck with a liquidity crunch on their forward sales ruin. A huge amount of money is required to cover their losses, urged on by Wall Street advisors. Their mining operations suffer from lack of funds, and projects are curtailed. The paradoxical differences in dynamics help to push the gap between the paper and physical Gold price. The incompatible forces work to rip apart the COMEX. The divergence between physical and paper gold price is widening.
ILLICIT USAGE OF CLIENT FUNDS AS COLLATERAL
The hypothecation battle will bring sufficient publicity to help the divergence along. As more assets are seen as committed, involved, and tainted in the process of grabbing, snatching, and securing collateral, even by illegal means, the physical assets will be removed from the system. Parties will remove accounts and metal from the COMEX in response from basic self-preservation. On the investment and speculation side, harm has been rendered to managed risk. The client funds have begun to flee. The protection and security of money in private accounts has been under siege in recent weeks since the MF Global crime scene was established and the yellow tape cordon has been put in place. Investors are pulling money out of hedge funds at a rapid rate. The COMEX will be increasingly isolated. Clients funds were redeemed to the tune of $9 billion in October, almost four times as much as they pulled in September, according to Barclay Hedge and TrimTabs Investment Research. Investors in October yanked more from hedge funds, setting a single month high over the last two years.
The redemptions are the largest for the hedge fund industry since July 2009, when $17.8 billion was returned. The Barclay Hedge office put lipstick on the corrupt pig by commenting on how investors have lost patience with lackluster investor returns. To be sure, the average hedge fund is down by about 4% this year. The global hedge fund industry size has been reduced to $1.66 trillion, still sizeable. It is always interesting, if not amusing, to read the spin from the isolated corners. Hedge funds are seeing capital depart for the simple reason of moving away from crime centers. In the process the COMEX is being isolated. With increased isolation comes the easily recognized fraud. Look for some major stories soon about the raids to the GLD and SLV inventories by their custodians engaged in naked shorting. The Exchange Traded Fund fraud story is analyzed more fully in the December Hat Trick Letter. The divergence between physical and paper gold price is widening.
DYNAMICS OF PAPER VERSUS PHYSICAL BASIS
Grand divergence dynamics are becoming clear. Ann Barnhardt explained in detail how the COMEX will go away. It will not default, but rather fall into irrelevance. She laid it out in credible detailed form with numerous factors coming to play. The COMEX might still suffer the shame and spotlight of criminal prosecution. It will more certainly suffer from being ignored and shunned. The physical basis market will not respond to the declines in the paper futures market. The current dominant market will go away due to lost integrity and eroded trust. The consequences and implications of the recent major scandal and coverup are enormous, staggering, and sweeping. The changes from the MF Global failure and theft of private segregated accounts will come in time, perhaps accelerated by another similar event to slam the message home. The Syndicate has turned desperate, resorting to theft in the open daylight, which has resulted in direct consequences. Hundreds of COMEX clients waited in line for delivery of gold, and had their wallets stolen by JPMorgan. Their Gold & Silver set for delivery found its way into JPMorgan accounts at the COMEX. The details of the missing silver then reappearing silver is discussed in the December Hat Trick Letter. The slow mentally overlook this fact. The alert who point to fraud consider it a smoking gun. On its face, evidence mounts that JPMorgan simply converted 614k ounces of MF Global client silver into JPM licensed vaults. Big hats off to the Silver Doctors for excellent financial fraud forensic analysis. Do not expect prosecution over the crime, for MF Global, for JPMorgan, or for the accomplices in London, not even Jon Corzine. The Fascist Business Model in the Untied States does not permit prosecution. The bigger the crime, the more likely the perpetrator is in control of the government high offices, the financial ministry, the printing press, or the regulators.
Ann Barnhardt explained how the COMEX will fade away into oblivion. Its final chapter will be marred by a grand price divergence, where the futures market price declines from shunned avoidance, while the cash physical market price holds steady then rises. Many including the Jackass had thought that a slew of delivery demands would force a drain in their gold & silver inventory, eventually leading to a slew of lawsuits, together to shut them down as a corrupt enterprise arena. The MF Global theft reveals the alternative route that seems more clear. The gold cartel led by JPMorgan and secretly by the USFed will not go quietly. They have resorted to theft of private accounts on the open stage. The money is not missing. That is the lie. It is held in JPMorgan accounts in London, where fraud laws are more relaxed. We have seen this Madoff movie before, but it will be shown on the silver screen again. The divergence between physical and paper gold price is widening.
