winter afflicting much of the Northern Hemisphere is only the start
of a global trend towards cooler weather that is likely to last
for 20 or 30 years, say some of the world’s most eminent climate
– based on an analysis of natural cycles in water temperatures
in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans – challenge some of the
global warming orthodoxy’s most deeply cherished beliefs, such
as the claim that the North Pole will be free of ice in
summer by 2013.
the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre in Colorado, Arctic summer
sea ice has increased by 409,000 square miles, or 26 per cent, since
2007 – and even the most committed global warming activists
do not dispute this.
predictions also undermine the standard climate computer models,
which assert that the warming of the Earth since 1900 has been driven
solely by man-made greenhouse gas emissions and will continue as
long as carbon dioxide levels rise.
They say that
their research shows that much of the warming was caused by oceanic
cycles when they were in a ‘warm mode’ as opposed to the
present ‘cold mode’.
to the widespread view that the planet is on the brink of an irreversible
catastrophe is all the greater because the scientists could never
be described as global warming ‘deniers’ or sceptics.
main British political parties continue to insist that the world
is facing imminent disaster without drastic cuts in CO2.
as Britain froze, Climate Change Secretary Ed Miliband maintained
in a parliamentary answer that the science of global warming was
Among the most
prominent of the scientists is Professor Mojib Latif, a leading
member of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC), which has been pushing the issue of man-made global warming
on to the international political agenda since it was formed 22
who leads a research team at the renowned Leibniz Institute at Germany’s
Kiel University, has developed new methods for measuring ocean temperatures
3,000ft beneath the surface, where the cooling and warming cycles
He and his
colleagues predicted the new cooling trend in a paper published
in 2008 and warned of it again at an IPCC conference in Geneva last
he told The Mail on Sunday: ‘A significant share of the warming
we saw from 1980 to 2000 and at earlier periods in the 20th Century
was due to these cycles – perhaps as much as 50 per cent.
now gone into reverse, so winters like this one will become much
more likely. Summers will also probably be cooler, and all this
may well last two decades or longer.
retreats that we have seen in glaciers and sea ice will come to
a halt. For the time being, global warming has paused, and there
may well be some cooling.’
Asia and North America froze last week, conventional wisdom insisted
that this was merely a ‘blip’ of no long-term significance.
lows were experienced as far south as Cuba, where the daily maximum
on beaches normally used for winter bathing was just 4.5C, the BBC
assured viewers that the big chill was merely short-term ‘weather’
that had nothing to do with ‘climate’, which was still
The work of
Prof Latif and the other scientists refutes that view.
On the one
hand, it is true that the current freeze is the product of the ‘Arctic
oscillation’ – a weather pattern that sees the development
of huge ‘blocking’ areas of high pressure in northern
latitudes, driving polar winds far to the south.
say that this is at its strongest for at least 60 years.