Widening concern about the state of climate science after thousands of internal e-mails and computer files were posted on the Internet could jeopardize any agreement at this week’s summit in Copenhagen.
Although a sweeping international deal already appeared unlikely, agreement on even less ambitious measures will be complicated by the growing ClimateGate scandal and questions that have been raised about the reliability of computer models linking global warming to man-made activities. No less an authority than the U.N.’s top climate official, Yvo de Boer, acknowledged on Sunday that the data leak was damaging; domestically, Republicans are pressing the Obama administration to reevaluate its position. (See CBS News’ previous coverage.)
Heaven and Earth: Glob...
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The summit in Denmark that began Monday, properly titled the 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference, is expected to draw some 100 heads of state, including President Obama. One unanswered question: How willing are wealthier, developed nations to curb their economic output and tax their citizens to pay poorer countries to emit less carbon dioxide?
A November 20 report from a U.N. working group outlines what many nations would like to see in a final treaty. Wealthier nations including the United States will make “mandatory contributions” to a “multilateral climate change fund” paid for by the requirement that “developed country parties shall restructure their taxation regime.” The report warns: “Delay by developed country parties in implementing their commitments to reduce emissions will increase their climate debt to the developing country parties.”
The Deniers
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The leaked electronic files have proven problematic because the argument for an international treaty is attached to this chain of reasoning: the earth is warming, the primary cause is man-made carbon dioxide emissions, the effect is harmful and can be remediated by limiting CO2 output, and, finally, it’s worth spending billions or even trillions to do so. If foundational data about temperature measurements is in error, as critics now say is the case – well, we might as well cancel the Copenhagen summit and tell all those inbound private jets to turn around and return home.
To be sure, many – perhaps even most – climate researchers say any flaw in the leaked data assembled by the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit (CRU) does not mean the theory of man-made global warming is false. Nicholas Stern, chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics, calls evidence for that theory “overwhelming,” and Obama administration scientists last week downplayed the scandal, as did a U.N. panel. Tempers are flaring: one of the East Anglia academics resorted to calling a skeptic “an asshole” on a live BBC television interview.
And the scandal seems to be broadening. Internal investigations are underway at the CRU and Penn State (with the state senate warning that the school’s budget may be at risk), one estimate from a free-market group says that 12 of the 26 scientists who wrote the relevant section of a U.N. global warming report are “up to their necks in ClimateGate,” and the BBC and independent analysts are evaluating the CRU’s computer code and finding it lacking.
December 8, 2009
