of new scientific paper: (Full pdf paper available here.)
DEFINES THE CLIMATE
Abdussamatov, Dr. Sc. – Head of Space research laboratory of
the Pulkovo Observatory, Head of the Russian/Ukrainian joint project
Astrometria – (translated from Russian by Lucy Hancock) Dr.
Abdussamatov is featured on page 140 of the 2009
U.S. Senate Report of More Than 700 Dissenting Scientists Over Man-Made
Global Warming. Also see "Related Links" below.)
Observations of the Sun show that as for the increase in temperature,
carbon dioxide is "not guilty" and as for what lies ahead
in the upcoming decades, it is not catastrophic warming, but a global,
and very prolonged, temperature drop. [...] Over the past decade,
global temperature on the Earth has not increased; global warming
has ceased, and already there are signs of the future deep temperature
drop. [...] It follows that warming had a natural origin, the
contribution of CO2 to it was insignificant, anthropogenic increase
in the concentration of carbon dioxide does not serve as an explanation
for it, and in the foreseeable future CO2 will not be able to cause
catastrophic warming. The so-called greenhouse effect will not avert
the onset of the next deep temperature drop, the 19th in the last
7500 years, which without fail follows after natural warming. [...]
We should fear a deep temperature drop – not catastrophic
global warming. Humanity must survive the serious economic, social,
demographic and political consequences of a global temperature drop,
which will directly affect the national interests of almost all
countries and more than 80% of the population of the Earth.
A deep temperature drop is a considerably greater threat to humanity
than warming. However, a reliable forecast of the time of the onset
and of the depth of the global temperature drop will make it possible
to adjust in advance the economic activity of humanity, to considerably
weaken the crisis.
Experts of the United Nations in regular reports publish data said
to show that the Earth is approaching a catastrophic global warming,
caused by increasing emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere.
However, observations of the Sun show that as for the increase in
temperature, carbon dioxide is "not guilty" and as for
what lies ahead in the upcoming decades, it is not catastrophic
warming, but a global, and very prolonged, temperature drop.
Life on earth
completely depends on solar radiation, the ultimate source of energy
for natural processes. For a long time it was thought that the luminosity
of the Sun never changes, and for this reason the quantity of solar
energy received per second over one square meter above the atmosphere
at the distance of the Earth from the Sun (149 597 892 km), was
named the solar constant.
precise measurements of the value of the total solar irradiance
(TSI) were not available. But according to indirect data, namely
the established major climate variations of the Earth in recent
millennia, one must doubt the invariance of its value.
In the middle
of the nineteenth century, German and Swiss astronomers Heinrich
Schwabe and Rudolf Wolf established that the number of spots on
the surface of the Sun periodically changes, diminishing from a
maximum to a minimum, and then growing again, over a time frame
on the order of 11 years. Wolf introduced an index (“W”)
of the relative number of sunspots, computed as the sum of 10 times
number of sunspot groups plus the total number of spots in all groups.
This number has been regularly measured since 1849. Drawing on the
work of professional astronomers and the observations of amateurs
(which are of uncertain reliability) Wolf worked out a reconstruction
of monthly values from 1749 as well as annual values from 1700.
Today, the reconstruction of this time series stretches back to
1611. It has an eleven-year cycle of recurrence as well as other
cycles related to onset and development of individual sunspot groups:
changes in the fraction of the solar surface occupied by faculae,
the frequency of prominences, and other phenomena in the solar chromosphere