Green Shoots or Greatest Depression?

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The financial
fields replete with sprouting “green shoots” should be viewed
with suspicion, if not alarm. They are not a mirage, but they
are ephemeral.

Field Marshall
Ben Bernanke and his Green Shoot Brigade have fertilized the economic
landscape with trillions of sweat equity dollars extorted from
today’s public and the public of generations to come. Regardless
of how depleted the land, heavy doses of dollars spread so thickly
over the financial and government territories, will force “green
shoots” to grow. But the fundamentals of the economy remain unsound.
They will not be corrected by forced fertilizing barren acreage.

“Green shoots"
may sprout, but they will not flower. The economy cannot be coerced
back into growth with tons of money manure. As the ancient parable
puts it:

“A sower
went out to sow his seed: and as he sowed, some fell by the way
side; and it was trodden down, and the fowls of the air devoured
it. And some fell upon a rock; and as soon as it was sprung up,
it withered away, because it lacked moisture. And some fell among
thorns; and the thorns sprang up with it, and choked it. And other
fell on good ground, and sprang up, and bare fruit an hundredfold.
And when he had said these things, he cried, He that hath ears
to hear, let him hear.” — Luke 8:4–8

Now hear
this: it is inconceivable that the “green shoots” are signs of
sustained economic recovery.

No one could
have forecast that the government would not only intervene in
the markets by pouring unprecedented trillions into bailout schemes,
but that they would commandeer the whole free enterprise system.

The 800-pound
gorilla has ridden the elephant into the Oval Office, and they
are there for all to see. But few will call a spade a spade. Benito
Mussolini described Fascism as "The merger of state and corporate
power." He suggested that, more appropriately, it should
be called "Corporatism." By whatever name, Corporatism
or Fascism, what it’s not is Free Market Capitalism, much less
Democracy.

“Green shoots”
can only be brought to harvest through real productivity. Pumping
gigantic sums of money into too-big-to-fail financial institutions
to jump-start the lending/borrowing cycle is to perpetuate a failed
economic model. (See “The Greatest Depression.")

We can extrapolate
creatively from data, but cannot prophesize wild cards, such as
acts of God, acts of nature, or acts of man that can only be described
as "schemes undreamed of." While there have been warnings
since the founding of the United States, no one, but no one, could
have predicted the mega-merger of Wall Street and Washington that
is now a fait accompli.

With so much
money being dumped into the system, there will be money to be
made … and lost. The agile and the knowledgeable may be able
to reap “green shoots” while they’re sprouted. But beware!

“The
Greatest Depression” — that we forecast would begin to set in
by the end of this year — may have been postponed, but it has
not been averted. When it does set in, it will do so with enhanced
intensity and at a pace accelerated by complex financial finagling
… all under the guise of nation-saving action. Rather than let
the failing industries fail and the failed banks go bankrupt,
the government is deliberately bankrupting the nation.

The lesson
to be learned from the financial crisis that began in the summer
of 2007, is that nothing succeeds like failure. The greater their
failure, the bolder they become. The more they lose, the more
they take. The greater the chaos, the more control they exact.
The bigger they fail, the harder we fall.

No act is
too unthinkable or measure too draconian for the Washington–Wall
Street Mob to concoct in order to maintain power, make money and
cover their losses. While it is impossible to second-guess what
the government will do next, it is absolutely certain that they
will stop at nothing.

The “green
shoots” will wither and conditions will deteriorate. Those who
are prepared for the worst will not have been taken by surprise.

May
11, 2009

Gerald Celente
is founder and director of The Trends Research Institute, author
of Trends
2000
and Trend
Tracking
(Warner Books), and publisher of The Trends
Journal. He has been forecasting trends since 1980, and recently
called “The Collapse of '09.”

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