If You Have to Ask...

“WHEN you stop asking,” was the exasperated reply of the broker to the pestering client who asked the same question over and over during the 1974 stock-market crash: When will it end?

Nobody knew, or could know. The broker, wiser than he realized, chose not to serve up the windy non-answer that fills so much cable TV time today: “Well,” he didn’t speculate, “the bear market will end when the Watergate crisis is resolved and the Federal Reserve gets its arms around the inflation problem and business activity shows convincing signs of a pickup.” Instead, he blurted the truth that bear markets end when investors give up hope.

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March 3, 2009

James Grant, author of Mr. Market Miscalculates, The Trouble With Prosperity, and biographies of Bernard Baruch and John Adams, is editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer.