wrote in November
that Ron Paul has a very good chance at winning the GOP presidential
nomination due to his enthusiastic support. The purpose of the current
essay is to re-examine this hypothesis after the amazing Q4 fundraising.
Just to give it all away up front: Ron Paul can win the Iowa caucus.
In the theme
Letters started by Walter Block, this is an open letter to anyone
(but especially Iowans given that tomorrow is the big day) that
thinks voting for Ron Paul is “wasting a vote.” The idea that votes
are wasted is usually a valid concern in a democracy. But, the Iowa
caucus tends to have a low turnout (6% to 7% in the last two presidential
rounds), so an outpouring of support from a dedicated base can make
a huge difference. That is, if the overall voter turnout is low,
your vote counts more than if everybody in the state casts a ballot.
The downside is that a state like New Hampshire, where Ron Paul
consistently polls well but has a 50% voter turnout, is actually
more difficult to win (but keep reading for the silver lining).
One thing that
I’ve been thinking about since my last essay is whether it is a
good thing that in a democracy, the minority can win. I say this
because, although there are a number of Ron Paul supporters, I think
it is safe to say that we are not the majority of the public. Yet,
we are more fervent and can change the outcome of this election,
as well as the future of this country, using the democratic process.
Overall, I think many LRC readers will have already concluded that
this is a major problem with democracy: “Democracy is the system
in which 51% of the people tell the other 49% what to do.” But should
I feel bad about using the system to my advantage?
I’m okay with
using the system for two reasons. First, elections are already decided
by the minority: the political class. As
Higgs writes, “the oligarchs, the Praetorian Guards, and the
supporting coalition — uses government power (which means ultimately
the police and the armed forces) to exploit everyone outside this
class by wielding or threatening to wield violence against all who
fail to pay the tribute the oligarchs demand or to obey the rules
they dictate.” This, of course, includes the MSM, which has been
pushing for Clinton 44 for a decade.
message is wonderful: FREEDOM. We just want to tell the “other 49%”
to not infringe on anyone’s rights to life, liberty, and property.
So we are the
polar-opposite of the current ruling class fighting for the freedom
of everyone else. How could I feel bad about that???
I used the latest CNN poll. It was put out on Nov 5th,
so it did not include the post-money bomb poll boosts for Paul.
I concluded that if, using a national average for polling and voter
turnout, Ron Paul would win the nomination by a small margin if
only 50% of his supporters tromped off to the polls. I repeated
this analysis using the most
recent CNN poll, which was done Dec 6th–9th
(i.e., after the first money bomb and before the second).
I also used a different voter turnout of 9.8%, thanks to an LRC
reader who sent me this
link (Thanks, EL! Note: I averaged 2000 Super Tuesday turnout
to get 9.8%). The results? Ron Paul wins the nomination with a 6%
lead over Giuliani!
But, EL and
others who wrote to me in November pointed out that the national
averages are tricky. Voter turnout varies a lot from state to state,
and this year we have a Super Duper Tuesday, which could really
throw things off. So I used the pollster.com
averages for national and state voting, along with the individual
state turnouts from the 2000 primaries. Pollster.com averages
recent polls from various sources, so it is a conservative estimate
of how the vote may go. Yes, I am still assuming that these polls
are accurate, so if Ron Paul comes in at 4% nationally, I say that
4% of registered voters favor him. As has been pointed
these polls are probably very inaccurate. But since they are underestimating
Paul’s support, my analysis is a conservative view and the conclusions
hold in that Paul will do “better than expected.”
additional Paul supporters
total for other candidates
for Ron Paul
In Iowa, Ron
Paul polls at 6.2% with Huckabee at 31% and Romney at 26%. If 6.8%
percent of Huckabee and Romney voters go to caucus, but 50% of Paul
supporters go to caucus, Paul will win with 35% of the vote and
an 11-point margin over Huckabee (!). Here’s the rest:
So what is
the silver-lining on Ron Paul losing New Hampshire? Well, first,
he’s going to have amazing momentum after handily winning Iowa,
so he probably won’t end up 5th. Second, the spread in
South Carolina, and presumably other states with moderate 20% turnout
is 10-points between first and last…not exactly a comfortable
lead for the “top-tier” guys. Third, Romney wins New Hampshire,
but he’s not in the running nationwide, so it won’t matter.
the worst-case scenario, using the MSM polling numbers: Ron Paul
ends up in a national 3-way tie with Giuliani and Huckabee, so it
goes to convention. And we all know that the motivated Paul base
has been planning for convention and is ready to take it by storm.
So, to conclude
my Open Letter to Iowa Skeptics: The message is powerful. The support
is real. And Ron Paul will give us our nation back if we fight for
the message for eleven more months.
Muratore [send her mail]
has a PhD in biology from UC Berkeley and is currently a postdoctoral
fellow at Johns Hopkins.