In the investment
world, it is a well-known axiom that the trend is your friend (until
it reverses). This phrase has been around for hundreds of years
and contains a lot of horse sense. Only an academic could truly
posit that anything controlled by human behavior is a so-called
"random walk." The tendency of humans to herd is well
documented and proven. To those in the know about investing, the
concept of trend uniformity is well known and to bet against a well-established
trend is folly. Yet all trends go too far and then reverse. The
trick is to know when they have reversed. I would submit that in
the 20th and 21st centuries Statism has been
a prevailing trend versus the Individual. Economies of scale and
the need for large teams to accomplish big projects drove us in
that direction in spite of our agrarian roots. But I sense a change
of trend. I believe that the support for Dr. Ron Paul is a function
of the fact that he is sitting on top of an enormous new trend:
Individuals versus Big Organizations or Individuals versus the State.
I am long Individuals and short the State.
The signs are
everywhere. The State is failing. It could not protect us from 9-11,
it could not protect New Orleans from Katrina. It absorbs over 50%
of our human labor in the form of taxes. It murders innocents. It
tells lies. Furthermore, it doesn't even conform to its stated mission
to represent the will of the people that it governs. The most obvious
and glaring example being the huge disconnect today between the
will of the American People and the will of the American Politicians/Media/Elite.
It is very clear that nearly 70% of the American people think that
the war was a mistake. So, using deductive logic the State should
stop the war. However, that is not what is happening. In spite of
a promise by the Democrats to stop the war, they have folded like
cheap lawn chairs. In fact, all of them (and all of the Republicans
except Ron Paul) now talk about how "all options are on the
table with Iran" implying that they may be willing to widen
the war. Why? Because they are all part of the Statist Government
Establishment that "theoretically" represent "we
the people." It is a lie. Dr. Paul knows this and others are
learning it quickly. If our elected representatives disobey our
will then who do they represent? The answer is becoming obvious
to more and more Americans. American Individuals are waking up.
They are waking up to the message that we do not need Big Government
or the State to control our lives. To paraphrase "V is for
Vendetta," the government should fear the people…the people
should not fear the government. This distinction is becoming clearer
and clearer to more people. The new trend is in motion. There will
be setbacks but it cannot be stopped.
will be much brighter than any of us can imagine if we continue
to push and support this trend.
Lepard [send him mail] is
an investment manager who lives and works in the Boston, Massachusetts