The Terrorist Threat to the US Homeland

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descriptions of the organization and National Intelligence Estimate
(NIE)-producing process are the same as in the Unclassified NIE.

Key Judgments

We judge the
US Homeland (By the way, who came up with that term? We feel like
such schmucks every time we have to use it. Was it that woman who
looks like she used to be a concentration camp guard? What is her
name? Oh, yeah, Fran Townsend. We'll bet it was she.) will face
a persistent and evolving terrorist threat over the next three years.
The main threat comes from the American people waking up and discovering
that we are totally incompetent and that al-Qa'ida, if they can
stop laughing their asses off long enough, can just walk across
our borders with Canada and Mexico.

We assess that
our Keystone Kops efforts over the past five years in Afghanistan,
and Iraq, and our unwillingness to secure our borders have bolstered
the ability of al-Qa'ida to attack the US Homeland again and have
led terrorist groups to perceive that we don't have a clue as to
what we're doing.

  • We are concerned
    that al-Qa'ida hasn't attacked us again because they don't need
    to. We're doing their work for them.

Blowback from
al-Qa'ida will remain the only serious terrorist threat to the Homeland,
as its central leadership continues to observe our hi-jinks, while
pushing others in extremist Sunni communities to mimic its efforts
and get a good laugh for themselves.

We assess the
group has protected or regenerated key elements of its Homeland
attack capability, including: a safe haven in the Pakistan Federally
Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), operational lieutenants, and its
top leadership. Although we have discovered only a handful of individuals
in the United States with ties to al-Qa'ida senior leadership (mostly
executives and former executives with Halliburton and the Carlyle
Group) since 9/11, we judge that al-Qa'ida may intensify its efforts
to put operatives here. Let's face it. Who's going to stop them?
If the Border Patrol were to stop them, we'd just put the Border
Patrol agents in jail. Anyone at the White House ever hear of two
guys named Ramos and Campeon?

  • As a result,
    we judge that the United States, especially this administration,
    is currently in a heightened threat environment as a result of
    our own incompetence.

We assess that
al-Qa'ida will continue to enhance its capabilities to attack the
Homeland through greater cooperation with regional terrorist groups.
Of note, we assess that al-Qa'ida will probably seek to leverage
the contacts and capabilities of al-Qa'ida in Iraq (AQI), its most
visible and capable affiliate and the only one known to have expressed
a desire to attack the Homeland. We don't really know who these
AQI guys are or where they came from. Maybe they were hiding out
with Saddam Hussein's WMD (wink-nod).

We assess that
al-Qa'ida's Homeland plotting is likely to continue to focus on
running down to the nearest 7-11 and stocking up on snacks and drinks
for the senior leadership while they watch us enhance their recruiting
efforts on al-Jazeera.

We assess that
al-Qa'ida is too smart to acquire and employ chemical, biological,
radiological, or nuclear material in attacks as they are achieving
all of their goals through our own ineptitude.

We assess Lebanese
Hizballah, which has conducted anti-US attacks outside the United
States in the past — especially when we plunked down a boatload
of Marines in their midst in support of Israel — would be more likely
to consider attacking the Homeland over the next three years only
if it perceived the United States as ever becoming a competent foe.

  • Most importantly,
    we assess that the spread of radical Internet sites like
    and the presidential candidacy of this guy Ron
    , will create our ultimate terrorist threat: an aroused
    American people ready to throw us, and our supporters in Congress,
    out on ear on November 4, 2008.

19, 2007

Gould [send him mail] is
a retired Imperial Storm Trooper and 2nd place finisher in the Southeast
Asia War Games.  He writes from Valrico, Florida and Falls
Church, Virginia.

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