Ideas Like Breadcrumbs

Last week, we dropped ideas like breadcrumbs:

  • Jimmy Carter seems to have done “good” in Africa.
  • Poor Professor Stephen Walt doesn’t seem to realize that certain subjects are taboo.
  • Institutions, societies, bull markets. Everything degrades and degenerates.
  • And history? There would be no history without degeneration, without aging, and without death.
  • Big old trees, parasites, and the news media.

Today, we pick up the trail and see where it leads.

We begin with Jimmy Carter. According to the press reports, the former president has been successfully leading an effort to exterminate the “Guinea worm.” The worm is a parasite that — like many others — takes control of its host for its own purposes. The worm enters the body, bores its way toward the skin, and then lays its eggs under the skin. Along with the eggs, if we understood the biology of it, it sends out toxins that burn so painfully that the person rushes into the river to soothe them. At this moment, the larval worms burst through the skin, are released into the water, where then can then get picked up and imbibed by another person — so the cycle continues.

In this respect, the Guinea worm is little different from the common cold virus, which makes its host sneeze and cough on the subway so that it can spread to the other passengers as well.

As systems, organizations and institutions age, they become home to more and more parasites. Sometimes the opportunists are benign, like the tickbird hopping a ride on the back of the rhinoceros or a squirrel nesting in an old tree. Other times, they subvert the host or eat away at it.

After World War I, a Congressional hearing was called to try to understand how the United States got involved in such a pointless and disastrous conflict. Americans had no dog in that fight, but they went to war anyway. And inquiring minds wanted to know: why?

Because the republic had been subverted, came the answer. While the United States had nothing at stake in Europe’s war, the big banks did. They had lent millions to England and France. From their point of view, it was vital that the United States enter the war on the side of the English and French, which it did in 1917.

Now cometh another war and another question: Why would the United States want to get involved in a war against nobody, for no apparent reason? Weapons of Mass Destruction! Democracy! Terrorism! But, the slippery explanations dried up just after daylight for those looking for more practical explanations: Oil!

But — in the Middle East, at least — it is cheaper to buy oil than it is to steal it. Cheaper, that is, for the American consumers, which have to bear the costs. Whereupon, a Harvard professor, Stephen Walt, traipses in with another: Israel’s powerful Washington lobby redirected American foreign policy for its own interests.

We don’t know whether there is much truth to it, but it seems at least plausible enough to warrant investigation.

Everything degenerates, degrades, and ages, dear reader. We aren’t the first to notice. As institutions mature, more and more “parasites” find ways to game the system. They worm themselves into positions of power to protect their privileges. They nestle into cozy nests and comfy sinecures in the niches and crannies of the big, old oak. Of course, the press, the politicians, and the universities also attract parasites with their own agendas — their own axes to grind and necks to chop.

Poor Professor Walt! He didn’t seem to understand, until his own neck was stretched out upon the block. And where were the politicians? Where were the journalists? Here was a story bigger than Watergate. Was no one interested in getting to the bottom of it? Did no one fly to the professor’s aid? Were all hacks and the pols in on it? We looked in the International Herald Tribune again today. No mention of it. We checked twice — no Congressional hearings either.

And so, history rumbles on — eating away and subverting the institutions that were supposed to bring it to an end. A modern, open democracy was supposed to be “transparent.” The voters were supposed to be able to see how important decisions are made. The press would make sure of it. Congress would insist upon it. And then, the enlightened voters would go to the polls and do their duty — righting wrongs, correcting errors, and keeping the great ship moving ahead in the right direction. There would be no more upheavals, no revolutions, no convulsions. Never again would she run aground.

Falling rocks ahead!

u2022 More from Mondo Condo. An article by MSN’s Melinda Fulmer:

“After several years of gung-ho development in south Florida, San Diego, Las Vegas and other major markets, the once-hot condo market is headed for a slump.

“The national median price for existing condos rang in at $228,200 in the fourth quarter of 2005 — a healthy 12.3% increase from a year ago, according to the National Association of Realtors. But in some of the most robust markets, where prices had soared in the past few years, appreciation slowed to a trickle:

“Condos in Atlanta went up just 3.7% year over year in the fourth quarter of 2005. Prices in San Diego bumped up just 1.7%. And in seven markets studied by NAR, such as Virginia Beach, Va. and Toledo, Ohio, prices actually dipped, mirroring the rest of the housing market.

“Agents and economists say they expect to see further erosion this year, as the housing market continues to cool. ‘There is reason to be concerned about the condo market right now,’ said Susan Wachter, professor of real estate and finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. ‘There is an all-time high of inventory right now and it is disproportional to condo markets,’ she said.

“Ryan Higgins, for his part, was undeterred by declining condo prices. The 29-year-old broker and mortgage lender from Carlsbad, Calif., recently decided to buy a $585,000 three-bedroom condo in the chic La Costa area, despite seeing prices dip on many new projects. ‘Real estate is not a good short-term investment,’ he said. ‘Anyone could have made money in real estate in the last few years.’ Now, he said, you have to be patient, ‘buy in the right market and sustain some turbulence.’"

Turbulence? We remind readers that real property prices in central Baltimore declined for 75 years, after peaking in the mid-’20s. Farmland in western Kansas peaked in the 1880s, and has never recovered. Looking ahead, we suspect that suburban property on both coasts is now reaching an epochal high. We may never see such high prices again in our lifetimes.

u2022 Our old friend, Martin Spring, writes with some thoughts on pensions:

“In America, some large corporations face bankruptcy because of their pension fund liabilities — in the case of General Motors these are three times the value of its shares. Congress is currently hammering out a new law to force companies to fund their pension promises and pay more in premiums to the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation, which has a $23 billion deficit.

“In Britain, companies are being forced to divert cashflow to clear the deficits in their funds within 10 years — the Pensions Regulator has started to use his new power to veto dividend increases.

“But it’s a problem that has much wider repercussions. It’s starting to embrace all sectors of society and to trigger the first skirmishes in the coming pension wars.

“In the United States, New York City transit authority workers recently went on strike to block a move to increase compulsory pension contributions by new employees from two to six percent.

“In the United Kingdom, a million local government workers went on strike to protest against plans to stop early retirements on full pensions, and the government has been castigated for giving bad advice to 85,000 workers about how secure their pension funds would be — then refusing to compensate them when the funds went bust.

“The scale of the emerging pensions problem is frightening.

“In Europe, the Kok Report recently warned that by mid-century the ratio of pensioners to active workers will double. Broadly speaking, that means the burden on the working population of supporting those who have retired will also double.

“In Britain, 97 of the 100 biggest listed companies have deficits in their pension funds, while the liabilities of unfunded schemes for public-sector employees, if taken into account, would more than double the national debt.

“In America, the gap between the cost of Social Security pensions, Medicare and future tax revenues to pay for them has been estimated at $44 trillion, or four times GDP.

“At the heart of the worsening pensions-funding problem in the developed world is refusal to face up to the facts. There won’t be a problem in future if it’s tackled now, but doing so requires making substantial sacrifices now and for years to come.

“Very few are willing to do that.”

No, Martin, few people are willing to do that…not as long as things are going so well.

Bill Bonner [send him mail] is the author, with Addison Wiggin, of Financial Reckoning Day: Surviving the Soft Depression of The 21st Century and Empire of Debt: The Rise Of An Epic Financial Crisis.