US Needs Clear and Consistent Set of Policies for China
by Leon Hadar by Leon Hadar
If you’ve been following the news in recent days you might have concluded that China resides in two parallel universes. First, there is the geo-economic universe in which China, the rising economic power with a huge current account surplus that is being urged by members of the Group of Seven (G-7) leading industrialized nations (whose finance officials met in Washington two weeks ago) to adopt a more flexible exchange rates.
Then there is the geo-strategic universe in which China the emerging Asian military power is targeted by the US as a potential strategic competitor while it is viewed by many Japanese as a future threat to core national interests, a perception that has been accentuated by the recent anti-Japanese demonstrations in China.
And, indeed, one sometimes gets the impression that whether it’s in Washington or for that matter in Tokyo or Brussels, policymakers seem to believe that there is no linkage whatsoever between what is happening in their relationship with China on the geopolitical front and the developments that are taking place in the geo-economic arena.
The conventional wisdom assumes that the US and other nations can trade with and invest in China and deal with the policy repercussions of those economic exchanges – that help transform China into a global political power – without considering their impact on their diplomatic and military ties with Beijing.
Even more amazing is the way American officials tend to de-link certain policy issues even when they operate in these parallel geo-strategic and geo-economic universes. Hence the Americans expect the Chinese to go out of their way to press their ally Pyongyang to rejoin the five-party talks on the North Korean nuclear crisis, while at the same time they are trying to project a tough American posture on Taiwan and even encouraging Japan to form with the US a common front over the issue.
But as US policymakers had concluded during the Cold War as they managed their relationship with the former Soviet Union, you cannot avoid employing a policy linkage when you are dealing with other powers. It didn’t make sense then to de-link US nuclear arms negotiations with Moscow from the issue of Soviet expansionist policies in the third world regions of the world. In fact, such linkages permitted the Americans to deal more effectively with the Soviets and provided opportunities for "package deals."
Opening US markets to exports from Japan and East Asia was part of a strategy to strengthen the economies of America’s anti-Communist allies in the Pacific. Even agreements by America’s economic partners to stabilize the US dollar or the price of oil were very much part of the Western strategy to assert their power vis-à-vis the Soviets and their allies.
In a way, what seems to be missing from the diplomatic and economic policies towards China that have been pursued by the US and its partners is a coherent vision of their national and common interests vis-à-vis between the two sides. The result is a mishmash of policy attitudes towards the Chinese that don’t make a lot of sense if you take a look at the broad picture: China as a place where American companies can make a lot of money. China as a threat to the American economy. China as a threat to American interests in Asia. China as a partner of the US in resolving the North Korean crisis. And the list of inconsistent policy tracks goes on and on.
So what is needed now more than ever, is a construction of a clear US policy that would articulate Washington’s view of China’s rise as an economic and political-military power and would provide for a set of consistent policies that could also serve as a focus for a discussion of US allies in East Asia and Europe. That in turn will create an environment where policy linkages and "package deals" with China can be agreed on.
Hence Washington shouldn’t allow its somewhat confusing positions on Taiwan and North Korea to determine its policies towards China. Its approach towards China should create the basis for its policies towards those two regional problems and produce opportunities for bilateral and multilateral package deals.
If the US and other leading economic powers want China to respond to their concerns they should treat it like a leading economic power and invite it to join the G-7/8 club and ASAP.